Bitcoin’s Slippery Slope: Analyst Benjamin Cowen Predicts Double-Digit Dip Ahead of Halving

• Analyst Benjamin Cowen offers a bearish perspective on Bitcoin’s near-term prospects.
• Cowen emphasizes the significance of the 20-week SMA and historical pre-halving patterns in his analysis.

In a market characterized by recent optimism, Benjamin Cowen, renowned for his crypto analyses with a substantial YouTube following, presents a sobering perspective on Bitcoin’s (BTC) immediate future. His contrarian stance challenges the prevailing market sentiment, especially considering the ongoing recovery across the broader cryptocurrency landscape.

Cowen’s skepticism revolves around historical data that highlights Bitcoin’s tendency to exhibit bearish tendencies in the lead-up to halving events. To unpack this, it’s essential to clarify the role of the 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), a crucial element in Cowen’s analysis. This moving average smooths out price data over a specific number of time periods, typically signaling bullish sentiment when Bitcoin maintains support above it.

However, Cowen posits that, based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s ability to sustain above the 20-week SMA as we enter the final quarter of 2023 is questionable.

Narrowing Down the Forecast: Price Corridors and Boundaries

Cowen’s forecast paints a picture of Bitcoin trading within a relatively tight range of $12,000 to $35,000 for the remainder of the year. At the time of this assessment, Bitcoin is priced at $27,448, leading Cowen to believe that a downward trajectory is more likely than a breakthrough beyond the upper limit.

To add precision to his prediction, Cowen delineates the upper boundary by referencing a price point reached in May 2022 and the lower boundary by a price established in November 2020. Importantly, he underscores that a dip below $12,000 is improbable.

In his analysis, Cowen also suggests that Bitcoin might have already reached its yearly high around $31,800 in July, further reinforcing his bearish outlook.

Benjamin Cowen’s assessment offers a counterpoint to the prevailing optimism, emphasizing the significance of the 20-week SMA and historical pre-halving patterns. It serves as a reminder that Bitcoin’s journey is shaped not only by its inherent potential but also by the cyclicality of market forces and investor sentiment.