Key Takeaways:
- BTC slipped below its 365-day moving average, raising correction risks.
- Support zones: $92K–$95K, $85K–$90K, $75K–$82K.
- Mid-cycle corrections of 25–40% align with historical patterns.
- Recovery above $102K crucial to prevent deeper downside.
Will Bitcoin Price Drop Below $90,000 as Key Psychological Support Fails?
Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $94,000 on Friday, sparking concerns that the cryptocurrency may enter a deeper correction. After slipping below its 365-day moving average—a critical floor since late 2023—investors are watching closely to see if BTC will hold above key support levels or continue downward.
Breakdown of Key Support Levels
The 365-day moving average, currently near $102,000, has historically acted as Bitcoin’s structural floor. Failure to reclaim this level mirrors patterns seen in late 2021, which preceded the 2022 bear market. On-chain metrics now show rising stress among holders who bought BTC within the last 6–12 months, with many entering near $94,600. A sustained breakdown below this band increases the risk of BTC dipping under $90,000.
Analysts identify three major zones for BTC support:
- $92,000–$95,000 – The first reaction zone, aligned with 6–12 month cost-basis levels.
- $85,000–$90,000 – Represents a typical mid-cycle 25%–30% pullback.
- $75,000–$82,000 – Worst-case scenario if ETF outflows accelerate and macro conditions worsen, matching historical mid-cycle declines.
On-Chain and Market Dynamics
Recent on-chain data shows significant unrealized losses for investors who joined during the ETF-driven rally. Historically, similar breaks in 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 led to prolonged retracements. Liquidity conditions remain volatile, and long-term holders have been distributing BTC at the fastest pace since early 2024, adding further downside pressure.
Also Read: GOAT Network Launches First-Ever On-Chain Bitcoin Yield Dashboard at Bitcoin 2025
Despite these factors, Bitcoin has not displayed signs of structural exhaustion or a blow-off top, indicating that the current weakness may reflect a mid-cycle consolidation rather than a multi-year bear market.
Outlook and Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory will depend on whether it can reclaim the 365-day moving average. A rebound would reduce the likelihood of sub-$90,000 moves, while continued rejection could trigger deeper tests of mid-cycle support zones.
