- Tron (TRX) is rallying strongly toward $0.32 despite a significant drop in its Total Value Locked, signaling diverging trends between price and network activity.
- Growing optimism in the derivatives market, highlighted by rising open interest and bullish sentiment, supports the potential for further upside if key resistance levels are breached.
Tron’s Bullish Surge Continues Despite TVL Setback
Tron (TRX) has kicked off the week with bullish momentum, building on Monday’s 1.88% gain with another 1% surge by Tuesday morning. The rally has pushed TRX firmly above its previous range resistance, igniting hopes for an extended upswing toward the $0.32 mark. Interestingly, this upward momentum arrives even as the network’s Total Value Locked (TVL) tumbles — a rare divergence that has many analysts watching closely.
Tron TVL Tanks, Lending Takes a Big Hit
According to DeFiLlama, Tron’s TVL has plummeted from $6.511 billion to $4.909 billion this month — a staggering drop that indicates waning DeFi activity. The most significant loss came from Tron’s lending category, which saw a sharp $1.5 billion decline, falling to $3.40 billion. While centralized exchange and bridged assets have remained stable, this drop signals reduced capital engagement and user trust in the network’s DeFi ecosystem.
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Derivatives Market Shows Unshaken Optimism
Despite the falling TVL, Tron’s derivatives data paints a bullish picture. CoinGlass reports a 7% increase in Open Interest (OI) over the past 24 hours, now sitting at $305.99 million. The OI-weighted funding rate also turned positive at 0.0096%, suggesting that bulls are stepping in and willing to pay premiums to maintain long positions. Additionally, the long/short ratio of 1.2139 highlights a market still dominated by bullish sentiment.
Eyeing $0.32: Breakout Confirmation in Play
At the time of writing, TRX trades at $0.2886, forming its second consecutive bullish daily candle. Saturday’s breakout from the $0.2654–$0.2791 range has cleared the way for a potential retest of $0.2969 — the resistance formed by previous December peaks. A firm daily close above this level could drive the price toward $0.3227, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
Technical indicators support the bullish outlook. The MACD is trending upward following a crossover, and the RSI has surged to 64, approaching overbought territory. Should momentum continue, a brief consolidation above 70 is possible. However, a slip below $0.2658 would invalidate the breakout scenario.
Tron’s price is breaking out even as network fundamentals like TVL decline — a testament to rising investor confidence in the token’s short-term prospects. With derivative markets flashing green, the $0.3227 target is now in sight — provided TRX can hold its momentum.