- Solana price struggles to break above $200 amid an $80 million token unlock releasing supply gradually through June 1.
- Technical indicators suggest weakening momentum, with potential support at $165.93 if selling pressure continues.
Solana (SOL), one of the top-performing altcoins of 2024, finds itself in a temporary holding pattern just shy of the $200 mark. The culprit? A scheduled token unlock valued at $80 million that began on May 25 and runs through June 1.
Unlike sudden “cliff” unlocks, this linear release will gradually inject about $11.82 million worth of tokens into the market daily. Although this represents only 0.09% of SOL’s circulating supply, it could still disrupt price stability if demand fails to keep up.
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At the time of writing, SOL is trading at $177.71 — below its recent attempt to reclaim the critical $200 psychological level. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has turned negative at -0.02, suggesting distribution is outpacing accumulation. This divergence hints that buyer momentum is weakening, despite recent gains.
Technically, solana had broken out of a falling wedge — a bullish pattern — suggesting potential for upside. However, signals from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) paint a more cautious picture. A bearish EMA crossover has formed, with the 12 EMA crossing below the 26 EMA — a traditional warning of slowing momentum.
If bearish pressure intensifies, SOL may drop to the support level at $165.93, or even further to $142.49 at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, if bulls regain control and invalidate the bearish crossover, a breakout above $195.12 could open the door to $218.65, with a stretch target of $252.15.
While smaller tokens like Hyperliquid (HYPE) are enjoying fresh all-time highs, Solana’s rally appears temporarily frozen. Whether it resumes its run depends largely on how well the market digests the ongoing token unlock.
In the short term, all eyes are on the interplay between technical resistance and supply-side pressure — a balancing act that will likely dictate SOL’s next move.
