Buy the Dip or Bail Out? Investor Dilemma as Toncoin Faces Uncertainty
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Toncoin (TON) plunged 25% after Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s arrest, triggering panic selling.
However, technical indicators and rising market confidence suggest a potential rebound as traders view the dip as a buying opportunity.
Toncoin (TON) experienced a sharp drop in value over the past 24 hours, as panic selling erupted following the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov by French authorities. The incident sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market, leading to a 25% plunge in TON’s price, which hit $5.24 on August 25. Durov faces charges relating to data privacy and cryptocurrency regulation violations, triggering widespread concerns about the future of the Telegram-linked Toncoin.
The Impact of Durov’s Arrest on Toncoin’s Trajectory
Telegram plays a crucial role in integrating and promoting Toncoin within its ecosystem, making Durov a key figure in the token’s success. The news of his arrest spooked traders, resulting in heavy sell-offs as market participants feared potential long-term consequences for the project. However, despite the initial downturn, several technical indicators and market trends suggest Toncoin may be poised for a significant recovery in the coming weeks.
A similar situation occurred earlier this year when Binance’s BNB token fell by 13.50% ahead of CEO Changpeng Zhao’s sentencing in the United States. After the initial panic, BNB rebounded by nearly 35%, with traders realizing that the legal troubles did not pose an existential threat to Binance’s operations. Toncoin could follow a similar psychological pattern, where fear-driven declines give way to buying opportunities once the situation is reassessed.
Key Technical Signals Hint at a Rebound
From a technical perspective, Toncoin remains within a well-established ascending channel on the daily chart. On August 25, the TON/USDT pair bounced off the channel’s lower trendline, which has provided strong support since earlier this year. Additionally, the daily relative strength index (RSI) reading of 37.54 places Toncoin near the oversold threshold of 30, signaling a potential consolidation or rebound.
The upper trendline of the channel currently sits near $8.50, representing a potential 50% gain if TON’s price moves toward that level. This target aligns with the bullish momentum suggested by the RSI.
Futures Market Data Reflects Growing Confidence
Further boosting Toncoin’s recovery potential is the rising confidence in the futures market. After Durov’s arrest, TON’s open interest (OI) surged to $303.62 million, its highest level since July. Meanwhile, funding rates for every eight hours climbed to a three-month high of 0.0101%, signaling strong bullish sentiment among traders.
The combination of rising OI and positive funding rates suggests that traders are increasingly betting on a price increase. If this momentum continues, TON could rapidly appreciate, potentially pushing toward the $8.50 target and beyond.
While Durov’s arrest initially rattled the Toncoin market, key technical indicators and market data suggest that a strong rebound may be on the horizon. Traders should keep an eye on these developments, as they could present attractive buying opportunities.
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