- Bitcoin’s price has surged 10% in a week, but its demand momentum remains deeply negative, signaling weak investor confidence.
- Analysts warn that without a rebound in long-term holding activity, the rally may not be sustainable.
Despite a strong price rally in recent days, Bitcoin’s (BTC) underlying demand momentum remains stuck in negative territory — a sign that the crypto market’s recent optimism may be masking deeper uncertainty.
BTC has climbed from around $85,000 on April 21 to nearly $95,000 today, a robust 10% gain that would usually stir bullish sentiment. Yet, according to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s 30-day Demand Momentum sits at approximately -483.860 BTC — well below the neutral mark.
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This crucial metric measures the balance between short-term and long-term holders over a 30-day period. A negative reading suggests that speculative trading is dominating, while long-term holders — often considered more confident investors — are stepping back. In essence, short-term traders are driving demand, not committed holders.
“This behavior often appears in late-stage distribution or macro consolidation phases,” Crazzyblockk noted, referencing similar patterns seen in mid-2021 and Q2 2022 — both of which preceded sharp price corrections.
This divergence in demand isn’t entirely surprising. Bitcoin’s latest rally may have triggered a wave of profit-taking, especially amid broader economic concerns like renewed trade tensions and inflationary fears. The lack of commitment from long-term holders could signal caution about the sustainability of the current uptrend.
However, there are some signs that a turnaround might be brewing. Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand — a separate on-chain metric — has shown a recent rebound, and BTC exchange reserves continue to plunge. This trend of rapid exchange withdrawals suggests accumulation, potentially reducing available supply and creating upward pressure on prices.
Still, without a recovery in the Demand Momentum metric, analysts warn that the rally might lack staying power.
To regain investor confidence and signal a sustainable bullish shift, Bitcoin needs to push its demand indicators back into the “green zone.” Until then, the market may remain in the dreaded “chop season” — volatile and uncertain.
