- Despite Bitcoin’s recent dip below $111K, analysts believe the bullish trend remains intact, with low volatility signaling a slow grind higher.
- Upcoming catalysts like potential Fed rate cuts and positive regulatory shifts could reignite demand and push BTC upward in Q3.
BTC Faces Profit-Taking, But the Bull Trend Holds Strong
Bitcoin’s price may have taken a recent dip from $111.9K, but don’t mistake this correction as the start of a downtrend. According to analytics firm Amberdata, the current retracement is just a bump in the road. BTC continues to consolidate above $100K, and analysts see signs pointing to a slow, steady grind upward rather than a crash.
Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, stated in the firm’s weekly report:
“To me, the bullish Bitcoin trend remains un-damaged, despite the recent pull-back.”
Supporting this outlook, implied volatility (IV) has dipped to the 30–40% range — a sign that the market isn’t expecting major swings in the short term. While that might appear to hint at stagnation, it’s actually more reflective of a calm before a potential breakout.
Also read: Cardano Joins Nasdaq Crypto Index: Boosting ADA’s Wall Street Appeal and Institutional Adoption
Q3 Could Spark a New BTC Rally
The real fireworks could begin in Q3. Bitwise’s Head of Alpha, Jeff Park, believes the market is underestimating what lies ahead. He expects IV to reprice higher in July, citing unknown but promising developments.
“Bitcoin IV is so mispriced right now because the world has no idea what’s coming in Q3… It’s going to be incredible,” Park said.
What could fuel the fire? Several catalysts are lining up:
- Anticipated Fed rate cuts that could boost risk-on assets like crypto.
- The successful Circle (CRCL) IPO.
- A weakening USD.
- A more collaborative global regulatory environment.
All these are potential tailwinds that could strengthen Bitcoin’s market position and investor confidence.
Short-Term Risks Remain, but Don’t Count BTC Out
Despite the bullish mid-term outlook, demand for BTC did slow down in June. According to CryptoQuant data, this drop follows a strong recovery in April and May. If demand continues to wane and macroeconomic conditions worsen — such as unresolved U.S. tariff tensions by the July 9 and August 12 deadlines — BTC may trade sideways or even dip short term.
Yet, with nearly $7 billion in shorts set for liquidation if BTC climbs back to $110K, there’s ample fuel for a rapid move higher if sentiment turns.
Bitcoin’s stride isn’t broken — it’s just pacing itself for the next run.
