- Bitcoin is testing key resistance near $97.7K ahead of the Fed’s rate decision, supported by strong institutional inflows and growing state-level adoption.
- A breakout could target $100K, but technical signals show mixed momentum as markets await Fed guidance.
Bitcoin is once again knocking on the door of a breakout, testing the upper boundary of its recent trading range near $97.7K. The flagship cryptocurrency has risen 2.8% in the past 24 hours, driven by a confluence of bullish factors that could set the stage for a move above the psychologically critical $100K level.
This week, optimism surged as the US and China announced trade talks set for the weekend in Switzerland—a potential easing of tensions that have recently soured investor sentiment. A de-escalation in the trade war could act as a tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
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Further boosting the bullish narrative, New Hampshire passed a groundbreaking law permitting the state treasurer to allocate up to 5% of public funds into Bitcoin. This unprecedented move could spark a broader wave of Bitcoin adoption at the state level, adding to institutional demand that has already been robust. Notably, Bitcoin ETFs have posted four consecutive weeks of net inflows, surpassing $5 billion, underscoring continued investor appetite.
Yet, markets remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s highly anticipated rate decision. While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.5%, investors will scrutinize the policy statement and Fed Chair Powell’s remarks for hints on future moves. A hawkish tone could weigh on BTC in the short term, though Bitcoin’s outperformance versus equities and gold in recent weeks signals strong underlying resilience.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is showing signs of consolidation with doji candles forming around resistance. The RSI remains above 50, supporting bullish momentum, but a bearish MACD crossover hints at possible downside. A breakout above $97.7K could open the door to $100K, while rejection could drag BTC back to support at $93K or even $90K.
With seasonality also on Bitcoin’s side—May has historically brought positive returns—the stage may be set for a significant move. The coming days could prove pivotal as macro headlines and technical pressure converge.