Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is in the “fall” phase of its four-year cycle — a time to consider taking profits.
- A drop below the 365-day moving average marks a technical bear market signal.
- Institutional adoption is rising, with ETFs and macro-hedge strategies driving long-term demand.
Bitcoin Enters “Fall” Season: Morgan Stanley Signals Harvest Time
Morgan Stanley strategists are warning that Bitcoin has entered the “fall” phase of its four-year cycle, a period they liken to a seasonal harvest. According to Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, historical trends show Bitcoin often follows a three-up, one-down rhythm. This pattern signals that now is a key moment for investors to take profits before the potential onset of a crypto winter.
“We are in the fall season right now,” Galindo said on the podcast Crypto Goes Mainstream. “Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”
Bitcoin’s Dip Sparks Technical Bear Market Debate
Bitcoin’s recent drop below $99,000 on Nov. 5 triggered renewed concern in the market, breaching the critical 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, highlighted this indicator as a significant marker of overall market direction. Analysts widely interpreted the move as a bearish signal, with Bitrue’s Andri Fauzan Adziima stating that the dip “officially marked a technical bear market.”
Also Read; Michael Saylor’s Matrix Tweet Sparks Debate as Bitcoin Dips From $106K, Big Wallets Keep Buying
Adding to the caution, crypto market-maker Wintermute noted that key liquidity drivers, including stablecoins, ETFs, and digital asset treasuries, have plateaued. This slowdown in liquidity inflows could limit short-term market growth and contribute to heightened volatility.
Institutional Investors See Long-Term Potential
Despite current volatility, institutional investors continue to view Bitcoin as a macro hedge and portfolio diversification tool. Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley Research emphasized that Bitcoin, often called digital gold, remains attractive for long-term allocation. ETFs have further eased access for institutional investors, bringing billions in assets under management.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. currently hold over $137 billion in net assets, while spot Ether ETFs hold $22.4 billion, according to SoSoValue data. These figures underscore growing adoption, driven by clearer regulation and more robust infrastructure.
Also Read: Smart Traders Go Long as Bitcoin ETFs Hit Record Inflows
Conclusion
Morgan Stanley’s seasonal analogy reinforces a pragmatic approach: harvest gains now while planning for potential downside. For investors, this period is about balancing short-term caution with long-term opportunities in crypto portfolios.
