Key Takeaways
- Dogecoin ETF could launch in 20 days if the SEC doesn’t intervene.
- Whales increasing holdings signals growing confidence.
- MVRV ratio and technical indicators suggest a potential bottom near $0.16.
- A confirmed breakout above $0.16886 could target $0.178–$0.20 next.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing signs of resilience after a volatile week, trading above $0.1600 on Friday. As excitement builds around a potential Bitwise Dogecoin ETF launch within 20 days, investors are watching for the meme coin’s next major move.
Bitwise ETF Countdown Could Spark Institutional Interest
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Bitwise filed an 8(a) form under the Securities Act of 1933 — a provision that could automatically approve the ETF unless the U.S. SEC intervenes within 20 days. If no action is taken, the Bitwise Dogecoin Spot ETF could officially launch by the end of the month.
The timing could prove pivotal. If the U.S. government shutdown continues, the ETF may come into effect automatically — potentially unleashing institutional inflows into DOGE. Historically, ETF launches and speculative hype have triggered sharp upward price movements for crypto assets, and Dogecoin could be next in line.
On-Chain Metrics Suggest a Market Bottom
Beyond ETF optimism, on-chain data supports a possible reversal. The 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits at -13.26%, indicating recent buyers are holding losses — a signal that DOGE may be oversold. In previous cycles, similar levels have preceded bullish reversals.
Also Read: Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction: Bearish Momentum Builds as On-Chain Metrics Weaken
Meanwhile, large wallet investors (holding 100 million–1 billion DOGE) have expanded their share to 20.31% of the total supply, up from 19.5% at the start of November. This accumulation hints at growing confidence among whales, even as retail sentiment remains cautious.
Technical Setup Favors a Rebound
Technically, DOGE is stabilizing near $0.15704, forming a double-bottom pattern — a bullish signal when confirmed. A breakout above the $0.16886 neckline could push prices toward $0.17816, with the 200-period EMA at $0.19755 serving as a key resistance level.
Momentum indicators support this outlook: the RSI’s uptrend points to easing selling pressure, while the MACD shows growing buying strength — both consistent with a pending reversal.
Conclusion
As Dogecoin consolidates, the Bitwise ETF countdown could be the spark for a bullish breakout. With improving on-chain metrics and large-holder accumulation, DOGE may be poised for a recovery — provided it holds its crucial support zone.
