Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin is testing critical support levels, with potential downside to $60,000–$70,000.
- Long-term holders and institutional investors are offloading BTC, increasing selling pressure.
- Broader macroeconomic events and institutional influences are shaping market sentiment.
- Technical support from moving averages may provide a short-term rebound opportunity.
The cryptocurrency market is under renewed pressure as Bitcoin (BTC) faces a critical juncture. Following a 2.4% decline in the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization has slipped to $3.3 trillion, the lowest level since early July. Investors and analysts are closely watching whether the historic four-year BTC cycles will hold or if a deeper bear market is on the horizon.
BTC Tests Key Support Levels
Bitcoin recently dipped below the psychologically significant five-digit mark, touching lows just under $99,000. After a period of consolidation from December to January, the market now faces intense selling pressure. If the current trend continues, BTC could test the $60,000–$70,000 range. However, technical indicators, such as the 50-week moving average, may provide support, offering a potential rebound before the end of the week.
Also Read: Metaplanet Raises $25M to Boost Bitcoin Holdings with Latest 555 BTC Purchase
Market cycles remain influential despite losing some amplitude. Historical patterns suggest the market may have already peaked for the next couple of years, explaining the recent intensified selling since October.
Investor Sentiment and Market Outflows
Long-term holders have been selling aggressively, offloading 400,000 BTC in the last 30 days alone, roughly 2% of total supply, according to WeRate. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and a persistently negative Coinbase premium suggest sustained pressure from U.S. sellers.
Stablecoin withdrawals from exchanges have also reached record levels, signaling a shift from riskier assets to safe-haven dollar instruments. Institutional demand has cooled as well, with net purchases dropping below daily BTC issuance for the first time in seven months, according to Capriole.
External Pressures and Institutional Influence
Beyond market mechanics, broader economic and institutional factors are weighing on BTC. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its second month, is adding downward pressure. Influential figures such as Peter Thiel have highlighted the constraining role of large financial institutions and government structures on Bitcoin’s growth potential.
Also Read: Public Companies Boost Bitcoin Holdings to $57B in Q1 2025, Marking 16% Growth
Meanwhile, Strategy plans an IPO on the European stock market to raise funds for BTC purchases, signaling continued institutional involvement in the crypto sector.
Despite recent declines, the four-year BTC cycle still guides investor expectations. Traders should monitor technical indicators and institutional activity closely to anticipate the market’s next move.
